IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FUT#8 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
73%50%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Vitality +23%FUT · 2 maps
OverpassFUT pick
57%56%
Vitality · 3 mapsnearly even +1%FUT · 5 maps
MirageFUT ban
78%33%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge Vitality +45%FUT · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%29%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge Vitality +34%FUT · 3 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%63%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge FUT +13%FUT · 4 maps
AnubisVitality ban
43%60%
Vitality · 3 mapsedge FUT +17%FUT · 1 map
InfernoFUT ban
40%50%
Vitality · 1 mapedge FUT +10%FUT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanFUT remove Inferno
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. PickFUT take Overpass
5. BanFUT remove Mirage
6. BanVitality remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (63% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct5:13
Vitality 31%FUT 69%
The model gave 69% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Overpassprediction correct13:2
Vitality 55%FUT 45%
The model gave 55% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Vitality 81%FUT 19%
The model gave 81% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 90%
Series resultVitality 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3