NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageCYBERSHOKE ban
50%53%
AM · 12 mapsnearly even -3%CYBERSHOKE · 11 maps
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
25%50%
AM · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +25%CYBERSHOKE · 14 maps
AncientAM ban
33%64%
AM · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +31%CYBERSHOKE · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
53%43%
AM · 13 mapsedge AM +10%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
OverpassAM pick
75%40%
AM · 8 mapsedge AM +35%CYBERSHOKE · 6 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
60%50%
AM · 6 mapsedge AM +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
AnubisAM ban
50%43%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +7%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickAM take Overpass
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Mirage
6. BanAM remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (53% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
AM 20%CYBERSHOKE 80%
The model gave 80% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Overpassprediction correct13:11
AM 84%CYBERSHOKE 16%
The model gave 84% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
AM 25%CYBERSHOKE 75%
The model gave 75% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 63%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3