European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%63%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +13%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
50%71%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +21%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
27%57%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge Virtus.pro +30%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
MirageKOLESIE ban
64%71%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge Virtus.pro +7%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
NukeKOLESIE pick
67%67%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
44%50%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
DefaultVirtus.pro ban
60%50%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +10%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Default
3. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
4. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
6. BanKOLESIE remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
KOLESIE 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Overpassprediction missed13:9
KOLESIE 26%Virtus.pro 74%
The model gave 74% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Series resultKOLESIE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2