5EPlay Professional Challenge Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Morningstarloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
50%40%
Vitalem Aerem · 6 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Morningstar · 1 map
AncientMorningstar ban
50%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Morningstar · 0 maps
NukeMorningstar pick
38%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 4 mapsedge Morningstar +12%Morningstar · 0 maps
InfernoVitalem Aerem ban
43%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 3 mapsedge Morningstar +7%Morningstar · 0 maps
AnubisMorningstar ban
60%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 1 mapedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Morningstar · 0 maps
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
50%40%
Vitalem Aerem · 0 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Morningstar · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 1 mapedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Morningstar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
2. BanMorningstar remove Anubis
3. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
4. PickMorningstar take Nuke
5. BanMorningstar remove Ancient
6. BanVitalem Aerem remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Vitalem Aerem 40%Morningstar 60%
The model gave 60% on Morningstar — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
Vitalem Aerem 63%Morningstar 37%
The model gave 63% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Morningstar.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Vitalem Aerem 50%Morningstar 50%
The model gave 50% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitalem Aerem · 57%
Series resultVitalem Aerem 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3