Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#166 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Famalicão#153 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
36%25%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +11%Famalicão · 4 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
47%57%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge Famalicão +10%Famalicão · 3 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
61%50%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge The Last Resort +11%Famalicão · 0 maps
CacheThe Last Resort pick
57%43%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%Famalicão · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
46%50%
The Last Resort · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Famalicão · 2 maps
AnubisThe Last Resort ban
50%40%
The Last Resort · 6 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%Famalicão · 1 map
DefaultFamalicão pick
57%50%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%Famalicão · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. PickThe Last Resort take Cache
4. PickFamalicão take Default
5. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
The Last Resort 43%Famalicão 57%
The model gave 57% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
The Last Resort 65%Famalicão 35%
The model gave 65% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 52%
Series resultFamalicão 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2