Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
59%57%
G2 Ares · 28 mapsnearly even +2%Famalicão · 3 maps
MirageFamalicão ban
40%60%
G2 Ares · 26 mapsedge Famalicão +20%Famalicão · 1 map
Dust2Famalicão pick
38%57%
G2 Ares · 22 mapsedge Famalicão +19%Famalicão · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%33%
G2 Ares · 18 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%Famalicão · 5 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
41%43%
G2 Ares · 13 mapsnearly even -2%Famalicão · 3 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
45%40%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%Famalicão · 1 map
DefaultFamalicão ban
67%50%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%Famalicão · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
2. BanFamalicão remove Default
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickFamalicão take Dust2
5. BanFamalicão remove Mirage
6. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
G2 Ares 29%Famalicão 71%
The model gave 71% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
G2 Ares 69%Famalicão 31%
The model gave 69% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
G2 Ares 52%Famalicão 48%
The model gave 52% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 54%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3