Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 16 mapsnearly even +0%overTIME · 2 maps
MirageoverTIME pick
58%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 15 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +8%overTIME · 2 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 16 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%overTIME · 0 maps
Dust2overTIME ban
53%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsnearly even +3%overTIME · 0 maps
CacheoverTIME ban
54%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 9 mapsnearly even +4%overTIME · 0 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%overTIME · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%overTIME · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanoverTIME remove Dust2
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickoverTIME take Mirage
5. BanoverTIME remove Cache
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
BASEMENT BOYS 57%overTIME 43%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
BASEMENT BOYS 53%overTIME 47%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by overTIME.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 58%overTIME 42%
The model gave 58% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 82%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3