ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eternal premium#208 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukeeternal premium pick
50%50%
Wingman · 0 mapsnearly even +0%eternal premium · 6 maps
AncientWingman ban
40%67%
Wingman · 1 mapedge eternal premium +27%eternal premium · 2 maps
AnubisWingman ban
50%29%
Wingman · 0 mapsedge Wingman +21%eternal premium · 3 maps
MirageWingman pick
60%33%
Wingman · 1 mapedge Wingman +27%eternal premium · 2 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
50%50%
Wingman · 2 mapsnearly even +0%eternal premium · 0 maps
Infernoeternal premium ban
60%60%
Wingman · 1 mapnearly even +0%eternal premium · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWingman remove Anubis
2. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
3. PickWingman take Mirage
4. Picketernal premium take Nuke
5. Baneternal premium remove Inferno
6. BanWingman remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Wingman 53%eternal premium 47%
The model gave 53% on Wingman — the map was taken by Wingman.
Overpassprediction correct10:13
Wingman 47%eternal premium 53%
The model gave 53% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Wingman 25%eternal premium 75%
The model gave 75% on eternal premium — the map was taken by Wingman.
Model check result
Model favoriteeternal premium · 54%
Series resultWingman 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3