NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
58%70%
Walczaki · 22 mapsedge INOX Division +12%INOX Division · 16 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
57%72%
Walczaki · 10 mapsedge INOX Division +15%INOX Division · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%64%
Walczaki · 15 mapsnearly even -1%INOX Division · 7 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
50%56%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge INOX Division +6%INOX Division · 12 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
75%44%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +31%INOX Division · 5 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
33%57%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge INOX Division +24%INOX Division · 10 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
75%50%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +25%INOX Division · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickINOX Division take Inferno
5. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
6. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (63% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct19:17
Walczaki 81%INOX Division 19%
The model gave 81% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Walczaki 31%INOX Division 69%
The model gave 69% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Walczaki 37%INOX Division 63%
The model gave 63% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 55%
Series resultWalczaki 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3