Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#141 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Ares#105 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
40%59%
STATE · 6 mapsedge G2 Ares +19%G2 Ares · 33 maps
AncientSTATE ban
46%56%
STATE · 9 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%G2 Ares · 23 maps
Miragepossible decider
36%32%
STATE · 7 mapsnearly even +4%G2 Ares · 24 maps
CacheSTATE pick
50%48%
STATE · 8 mapsnearly even +2%G2 Ares · 19 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%31%
STATE · 0 mapsedge STATE +19%G2 Ares · 22 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
50%44%
STATE · 4 mapsedge STATE +6%G2 Ares · 12 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%50%
STATE · 10 mapsnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickSTATE take Cache
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanSTATE remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (36% / 32%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
STATE 29%G2 Ares 71%
The model gave 71% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by STATE.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
STATE 59%G2 Ares 41%
The model gave 59% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 57%
Series resultSTATE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2