IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNatus Vincere pick
70%75%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge Spirit +5%Spirit · 4 maps
Dust2Spirit pick
38%78%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Spirit +40%Spirit · 5 maps
MirageNatus Vincere ban
71%78%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Spirit +7%Spirit · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
63%50%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Natus Vincere +13%Spirit · 0 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
57%50%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +7%Spirit · 0 maps
NukeSpirit ban
50%60%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsedge Spirit +10%Spirit · 1 map
OverpassNatus Vincere ban
50%40%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge Natus Vincere +10%Spirit · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Overpass
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct1:13
Natus Vincere 13%Spirit 87%
The model gave 87% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
Natus Vincere 65%Spirit 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 57%
Series resultSpirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2