DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoRooster pick
50%67%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge Rooster +17%Rooster · 2 maps
NukeAbyssal pick
57%33%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +24%Rooster · 2 maps
MirageRooster ban
71%60%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +11%Rooster · 1 map
DefaultRooster ban
60%33%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +27%Rooster · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%33%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +27%Rooster · 2 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%60%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Rooster +20%Rooster · 1 map
Dust2Abyssal ban
50%50%
Abyssal · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rooster · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
2. BanRooster remove Mirage
3. PickAbyssal take Nuke
4. PickRooster take Inferno
5. BanRooster remove Default
6. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:6
Abyssal 73%Rooster 27%
The model gave 73% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Abyssal 75%Rooster 25%
The model gave 75% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Rooster.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Abyssal 63%Rooster 37%
The model gave 63% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 53%
Series resultRooster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3