DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMGLBROS ban
40%50%
MGLBROS · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
InfernoMGLBROS pick
40%40%
MGLBROS · 1 mapnearly even +0%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
MirageMGLBROS ban
50%33%
MGLBROS · 0 mapsedge MGLBROS +17%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
AnubisMARKandLARRY ban
50%40%
MGLBROS · 0 mapsedge MGLBROS +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
DefaultMARKandLARRY pick
50%60%
MGLBROS · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Dust2MARKandLARRY ban
50%40%
MGLBROS · 0 mapsedge MGLBROS +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMGLBROS remove Mirage
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Anubis
3. PickMGLBROS take Inferno
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Default
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Dust2
6. BanMGLBROS remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
MGLBROS 63%MARKandLARRY 37%
The model gave 63% on MGLBROS — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
MGLBROS 47%MARKandLARRY 53%
The model gave 53% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Model check result
Model favoriteMGLBROS · 50%
Series resultMARKandLARRY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2