ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChicken Coop pick
50%64%
Club 333 · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +14%Chicken Coop · 7 maps
OverpassClub 333 ban
50%64%
Club 333 · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +14%Chicken Coop · 7 maps
Dust2Club 333 pick
60%38%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge Club 333 +22%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
NukeChicken Coop ban
50%44%
Club 333 · 0 mapsedge Club 333 +6%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
AncientClub 333 ban
50%63%
Club 333 · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +13%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%57%
Club 333 · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
60%60%
Club 333 · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanClub 333 remove Overpass
2. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
3. PickClub 333 take Dust2
4. PickChicken Coop take Inferno
5. BanChicken Coop remove Nuke
6. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Club 333 34%Chicken Coop 66%
The model gave 66% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Club 333 74%Chicken Coop 26%
The model gave 74% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 70%
Series resultChicken Coop 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2