ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
45%40%
DONSTU · 7 mapsedge DONSTU +5%Banger Gang · 1 map
Dust2Banger Gang pick
40%40%
DONSTU · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 1 map
InfernoBanger Gang ban
44%50%
DONSTU · 5 mapsedge Banger Gang +6%Banger Gang · 0 maps
AncientBanger Gang ban
50%50%
DONSTU · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 0 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
50%50%
DONSTU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 2 maps
OverpassDONSTU ban
50%60%
DONSTU · 0 mapsedge Banger Gang +10%Banger Gang · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
2. BanBanger Gang remove Ancient
3. PickDONSTU take Anubis
4. PickBanger Gang take Dust2
5. BanBanger Gang remove Inferno
6. BanDONSTU remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
DONSTU 47%Banger Gang 53%
The model gave 53% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
DONSTU 58%Banger Gang 42%
The model gave 58% on DONSTU — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Overpassprediction missed16:14
DONSTU 40%Banger Gang 60%
The model gave 60% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 56%
Series resultDONSTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3