ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eternal premium#208 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukeeternal premium pick
55%44%
Misa · 7 mapsedge Misa +11%eternal premium · 5 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
73%50%
Misa · 11 mapsedge Misa +23%eternal premium · 0 maps
MirageMisa pick
50%33%
Misa · 8 mapsedge Misa +17%eternal premium · 2 maps
Anubiseternal premium ban
38%29%
Misa · 4 mapsedge Misa +9%eternal premium · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%50%
Misa · 5 mapsedge eternal premium +6%eternal premium · 0 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%67%
Misa · 0 mapsedge eternal premium +17%eternal premium · 2 maps
OverpassMisa ban
33%50%
Misa · 2 mapsedge eternal premium +17%eternal premium · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
3. PickMisa take Mirage
4. Picketernal premium take Nuke
5. Baneternal premium remove Anubis
6. BanMisa remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
Misa 57%eternal premium 43%
The model gave 57% on Misa — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Misa 47%eternal premium 53%
The model gave 53% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 58%
Series resulteternal premium 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2