ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Young TigeRES#156 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Young TigeRES · 2 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
33%50%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsedge Young TigeRES +17%Young TigeRES · 2 maps
CacheFalcons Force pick
67%40%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsedge Falcons Force +27%Young TigeRES · 1 map
InfernoYoung TigeRES ban
62%50%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge Falcons Force +12%Young TigeRES · 0 maps
AnubisYoung TigeRES ban
67%50%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%Young TigeRES · 0 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%50%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge Young TigeRES +17%Young TigeRES · 2 maps
AncientYoung TigeRES pick
57%50%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +7%Young TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanYoung TigeRES remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons Force take Cache
4. PickYoung TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanYoung TigeRES remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
Falcons Force 31%Young TigeRES 69%
The model gave 69% on Young TigeRES — the map was taken by Young TigeRES.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
Falcons Force 77%Young TigeRES 23%
The model gave 77% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Falcons Force 50%Young TigeRES 50%
The model gave 50% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Young TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 61%
Series resultYoung TigeRES 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3