ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Fire Flux · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Al Ahli · 0 maps
CacheAl Ahli ban
57%50%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%Al Ahli · 0 maps
InfernoAl Ahli ban
64%50%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%Al Ahli · 0 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
62%50%
Fire Flux · 9 mapsedge Fire Flux +12%Al Ahli · 0 maps
MirageAl Ahli pick
38%50%
Fire Flux · 9 mapsedge Al Ahli +12%Al Ahli · 0 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Al Ahli · 0 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
29%50%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Al Ahli +21%Al Ahli · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanAl Ahli remove Inferno
3. PickFire Flux take Anubis
4. PickAl Ahli take Mirage
5. BanAl Ahli remove Cache
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:12
Fire Flux 47%Al Ahli 53%
The model gave 53% on Al Ahli — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction correct13:3
Fire Flux 64%Al Ahli 36%
The model gave 64% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 67%
Series resultFire Flux 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2