ESEA Season 58 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukemy life be like ban
75%33%
SportsBetExpert · 12 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +42%my life be like · 2 maps
Infernomy life be like ban
67%40%
SportsBetExpert · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%my life be like · 1 map
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
87%60%
SportsBetExpert · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%my life be like · 1 map
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
50%40%
SportsBetExpert · 10 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%my life be like · 1 map
Anubismy life be like pick
60%60%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsnearly even +0%my life be like · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
45%50%
SportsBetExpert · 7 mapsedge my life be like +5%my life be like · 0 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%50%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsnearly even +0%my life be like · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. Banmy life be like remove Inferno
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
4. Pickmy life be like take Anubis
5. Banmy life be like remove Nuke
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
DeciderCache (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
SportsBetExpert 47%my life be like 53%
The model gave 53% on my life be like — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
SportsBetExpert 77%my life be like 23%
The model gave 77% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 76%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2