ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the worldseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start
NJNAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Fire Flux · 14 mapsnearly even +0%NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner · 0 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner ban
67%50%
Fire Flux · 11 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner · 0 maps
CacheFire Flux pick
57%50%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner · 0 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner ban
64%50%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner · 0 maps
MirageNAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner pick
43%50%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner +7%NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner · 0 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
55%50%
Fire Flux · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +5%NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner · 0 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
25%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner +25%NAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanNAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Cache
4. PickNAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior/Fever Squad winner remove Inferno
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 51%