Marsborne vs Without a Roof — prediction ESNAF 58 · CS2

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ESEA Season 58 North America Finals · BO3

result vs prediction

Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 0:2

series probability

45%55%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Map veto prediction

For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.

AncientMarsborne pick

63%50%

Marsborne · 15 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Without a Roof · 10 maps

Infernopossible decider

63%69%

Marsborne · 12 mapsedge Without a Roof +6%Without a Roof · 12 maps

MirageMarsborne ban

67%63%

Marsborne · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Without a Roof · 12 maps

Dust2Marsborne ban

58%40%

Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +18%Without a Roof · 6 maps

NukeWithout a Roof ban

55%55%

Marsborne · 7 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 7 maps

AnubisWithout a Roof ban

70%60%

Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Without a Roof · 1 map

DefaultWithout a Roof pick

63%50%

Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Without a Roof · 0 maps

Most likely veto scenario

1. BanMarsborne remove Mirage

2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis

3. PickMarsborne take Ancient

4. PickWithout a Roof take Default

5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke

6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2

DeciderInferno (63% / 69%)

Prediction by map vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.

Mirageprediction missed17:19

Marsborne 52%Without a Roof 48%

The model gave 52% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.

Nukeprediction missed9:13

Marsborne 53%Without a Roof 47%

The model gave 53% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.

Model check result

Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 55%

Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by map0 of 2