DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeRooster ban
33%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +17%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
DefaultMARKandLARRY pick
33%60%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +27%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Dust2MARKandLARRY ban
50%40%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
InfernoRooster pick
67%40%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +27%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
OverpassMARKandLARRY ban
33%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +17%MARKandLARRY · 0 maps
MirageRooster ban
50%40%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge Rooster +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Mirage
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Dust2
3. PickRooster take Inferno
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Default
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Overpass
6. BanRooster remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Rooster 57%MARKandLARRY 43%
The model gave 57% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Rooster 53%MARKandLARRY 47%
The model gave 53% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 53%
Series resultRooster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2