NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
55%60%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge ASTRAL +5%ASTRAL · 21 map
Dust2possible decider
30%50%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge ASTRAL +20%ASTRAL · 12 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
60%47%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge KOLESIE +13%ASTRAL · 11 maps
NukeKOLESIE pick
56%33%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsedge KOLESIE +23%ASTRAL · 8 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%36%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +14%ASTRAL · 10 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
38%67%
KOLESIE · 4 mapsedge ASTRAL +29%ASTRAL · 5 maps
OverpassASTRAL ban
50%50%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BanASTRAL remove Overpass
3. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
6. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (30% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:12
KOLESIE 21%ASTRAL 79%
The model gave 79% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
KOLESIE 74%ASTRAL 26%
The model gave 74% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 69%
Series resultKOLESIE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2