ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoThird Prime ban
60%50%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Third Prime · 0 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
60%50%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Third Prime · 0 maps
NukeChicken Coop ban
44%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Third Prime +6%Third Prime · 0 maps
AncientThird Prime ban
63%50%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsedge Chicken Coop +13%Third Prime · 0 maps
Dust2Third Prime pick
38%50%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsedge Third Prime +12%Third Prime · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Third Prime · 0 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
60%50%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Chicken Coop +10%Third Prime · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
2. BanThird Prime remove Ancient
3. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
4. PickThird Prime take Dust2
5. BanThird Prime remove Inferno
6. BanChicken Coop remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Chicken Coop 47%Third Prime 53%
The model gave 53% on Third Prime — the map was taken by Third Prime.
Overpassprediction correct13:4
Chicken Coop 63%Third Prime 37%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Chicken Coop 60%Third Prime 40%
The model gave 60% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 75%
Series resultChicken Coop 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3