ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
M80#27 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMOUZ ban
38%54%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge M80 +16%M80 · 9 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
79%50%
MOUZ · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +29%M80 · 8 maps
Dust2M80 ban
57%45%
MOUZ · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +12%M80 · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
78%47%
MOUZ · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +31%M80 · 11 maps
CacheM80 pick
38%71%
MOUZ · 4 mapsedge M80 +33%M80 · 10 maps
NukeM80 ban
62%50%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge MOUZ +12%M80 · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%50%
MOUZ · 0 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanM80 remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ take Mirage
4. PickM80 take Cache
5. BanM80 remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (78% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
MOUZ 18%M80 82%
The model gave 82% on M80 — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
MOUZ 81%M80 19%
The model gave 81% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 87%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2