ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFalcons ban
57%60%
Falcons · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Aurora · 11 maps
Dust2Falcons pick
67%56%
Falcons · 8 mapsedge Falcons +11%Aurora · 5 maps
InfernoAurora ban
63%55%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Falcons +8%Aurora · 7 maps
AnubisAurora pick
50%58%
Falcons · 2 mapsedge Aurora +8%Aurora · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%80%
Falcons · 3 mapsedge Aurora +23%Aurora · 6 maps
AncientAurora ban
33%40%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Aurora +7%Aurora · 1 map
CacheFalcons ban
50%50%
Falcons · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Cache
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickFalcons take Dust2
4. PickAurora take Anubis
5. BanAurora remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (57% / 80%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
Falcons 44%Aurora 56%
The model gave 56% on Aurora — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Falcons 64%Aurora 36%
The model gave 64% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 62%
Series resultFalcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2