ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ pick
57%80%
FURIA · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +23%MOUZ · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
46%57%
FURIA · 9 mapsedge MOUZ +11%MOUZ · 10 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
50%38%
FURIA · 8 mapsedge FURIA +12%MOUZ · 9 maps
NukeFURIA pick
67%62%
FURIA · 8 mapsedge FURIA +5%MOUZ · 9 maps
CacheMOUZ ban
50%44%
FURIA · 10 mapsedge FURIA +6%MOUZ · 5 maps
InfernoFURIA ban
57%78%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +21%MOUZ · 5 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +21%MOUZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
3. PickFURIA take Nuke
4. PickMOUZ take Mirage
5. BanMOUZ remove Cache
6. BanFURIA remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (46% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
FURIA 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on FURIA — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
FURIA 23%MOUZ 77%
The model gave 77% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 69%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2