ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPARIVISION pick
64%50%
PARIVISION · 7 mapsedge PARIVISION +14%FURIA · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%46%
PARIVISION · 6 mapsedge FURIA +6%FURIA · 9 maps
CacheFURIA pick
29%47%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge FURIA +18%FURIA · 11 maps
MiragePARIVISION ban
50%53%
PARIVISION · 2 mapsnearly even -3%FURIA · 11 maps
InfernoFURIA ban
40%57%
PARIVISION · 6 mapsedge FURIA +17%FURIA · 3 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%67%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge FURIA +17%FURIA · 8 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
50%29%
PARIVISION · 2 mapsedge PARIVISION +21%FURIA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. BanFURIA remove Anubis
3. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
4. PickFURIA take Cache
5. BanFURIA remove Inferno
6. BanPARIVISION remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (40% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
PARIVISION 66%FURIA 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
PARIVISION 44%FURIA 56%
The model gave 56% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
PARIVISION 33%FURIA 67%
The model gave 67% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 88%
Series resultFURIA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3