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ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFalcons ban
63%45%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Falcons +18%Natus Vincere · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%40%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +16%Natus Vincere · 6 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
64%50%
Falcons · 10 mapsedge Falcons +14%Natus Vincere · 0 maps
AncientNatus Vincere ban
33%29%
Falcons · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
NukeNatus Vincere pick
57%63%
Falcons · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +6%Natus Vincere · 4 maps
AnubisFalcons pick
57%50%
Falcons · 3 mapsedge Falcons +7%Natus Vincere · 2 maps
CacheFalcons ban
50%71%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Natus Vincere +21%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Cache
2. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
3. PickFalcons take Anubis
4. PickNatus Vincere take Nuke
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Ancient
6. BanFalcons remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Falcons 64%Natus Vincere 36%
The model gave 64% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Anubisprediction missed15:19
Falcons 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Falcons — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Falcons 65%Natus Vincere 35%
The model gave 65% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 72%
Series resultFalcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3