NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
75%71%
TDK · 12 mapsnearly even +4%INOX Division · 13 maps
OverpassTDK pick
77%62%
TDK · 9 mapsedge TDK +15%INOX Division · 9 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%70%
TDK · 1 mapedge INOX Division +30%INOX Division · 16 maps
AncientTDK ban
62%64%
TDK · 9 mapsnearly even -2%INOX Division · 7 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
29%57%
TDK · 3 mapsedge INOX Division +28%INOX Division · 10 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
43%44%
TDK · 3 mapsnearly even -1%INOX Division · 5 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
45%50%
TDK · 7 mapsedge INOX Division +5%INOX Division · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickINOX Division take Inferno
5. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
6. BanTDK remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (75% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed19:16
TDK 21%INOX Division 79%
The model gave 79% on INOX Division — the map was taken by TDK.
Overpassprediction correct13:5
TDK 70%INOX Division 30%
The model gave 70% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 56%
Series resultTDK 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2