1xBet FRAG Season 18 · BO1
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 6:13
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ARCRED ban
48%56%
WW · 17 mapsedge ARCRED +8%ARCRED · 5 maps
MirageARCRED ban
53%29%
WW · 13 mapsedge WW +24%ARCRED · 3 maps
AnubisWW ban
50%75%
WW · 6 mapsedge ARCRED +25%ARCRED · 4 maps
AncientWW ban
44%33%
WW · 5 mapsedge WW +11%ARCRED · 2 maps
CacheWW ban
44%40%
WW · 5 mapsnearly even +4%ARCRED · 1 map
NukeARCRED ban
56%40%
WW · 5 mapsedge WW +16%ARCRED · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
WW · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ARCRED · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanARCRED remove Nuke
3. BanWW remove Cache
4. BanARCRED remove Mirage
5. BanWW remove Anubis
6. BanARCRED remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
WW 42%ARCRED 58%
The model gave 58% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 59%
Series resultARCRED 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1