1xBet FRAG Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
45%33%
WW · 18 mapsedge WW +12%DNK · 2 maps
MirageDNK ban
53%40%
WW · 13 mapsedge WW +13%DNK · 1 map
AnubisWW ban
50%40%
WW · 6 mapsedge WW +10%DNK · 1 map
AncientWW ban
44%50%
WW · 5 mapsedge DNK +6%DNK · 0 maps
CacheDNK pick
44%50%
WW · 5 mapsedge DNK +6%DNK · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%50%
WW · 5 mapsedge WW +6%DNK · 0 maps
InfernoDNK ban
60%50%
WW · 1 mapedge WW +10%DNK · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanDNK remove Inferno
3. PickWW take Dust2
4. PickDNK take Cache
5. BanDNK remove Mirage
6. BanWW remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
WW 57%DNK 43%
The model gave 57% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
WW 47%DNK 53%
The model gave 53% on DNK — the map was taken by DNK.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
WW 63%DNK 37%
The model gave 63% on WW — the map was taken by DNK.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 60%
Series resultDNK 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3