WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
46%63%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Black Phoenix · 52 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
58%29%
UPGRADE · 15 mapsedge UPGRADE +29%Black Phoenix · 20 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
38%45%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%Black Phoenix · 25 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
36%50%
UPGRADE · 7 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Black Phoenix · 22 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge Black Phoenix +12%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%64%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
67%33%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge UPGRADE +34%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (57% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
UPGRADE 79%Black Phoenix 21%
The model gave 79% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Nukeprediction missed19:17
UPGRADE 34%Black Phoenix 66%
The model gave 66% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 61%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2