WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheRefresher ban
50%62%
Refresher · 0 mapsedge HOTU +12%HOTU · 22 maps
Dust2Refresher pick
40%63%
Refresher · 1 mapedge HOTU +23%HOTU · 20 maps
AnubisHOTU pick
40%68%
Refresher · 1 mapedge HOTU +28%HOTU · 15 maps
AncientRefresher ban
50%61%
Refresher · 0 mapsedge HOTU +11%HOTU · 14 maps
MirageHOTU ban
50%63%
Refresher · 0 mapsedge HOTU +13%HOTU · 12 maps
NukeHOTU ban
50%60%
Refresher · 0 mapsedge HOTU +10%HOTU · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%57%
Refresher · 0 mapsedge HOTU +7%HOTU · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRefresher remove Cache
2. BanHOTU remove Mirage
3. PickRefresher take Dust2
4. PickHOTU take Anubis
5. BanHOTU remove Nuke
6. BanRefresher remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct0:13
Refresher 40%HOTU 60%
The model gave 60% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Anubisprediction correct0:13
Refresher 21%HOTU 79%
The model gave 79% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 86%
Series resultHOTU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2