WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
63%63%
HOTU · 20 mapsnearly even +0%Black Phoenix · 52 maps
CacheHOTU pick
62%50%
HOTU · 22 mapsedge HOTU +12%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
MirageHOTU ban
65%45%
HOTU · 13 mapsedge HOTU +20%Black Phoenix · 25 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
70%28%
HOTU · 16 mapsedge HOTU +42%Black Phoenix · 21 map
Nukepossible decider
60%48%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +12%Black Phoenix · 23 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%64%
HOTU · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +24%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
61%33%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +28%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (60% / 48%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
HOTU 47%Black Phoenix 53%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by HOTU.
Anubisprediction missed2:13
HOTU 87%Black Phoenix 13%
The model gave 87% on HOTU — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
HOTU 62%Black Phoenix 38%
The model gave 62% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 68%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3