Stake Ranked Episode 3 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spirit Academy#111 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisSpirit Academy ban
77%50%
Betclic · 9 mapsedge Betclic +27%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
NukeSpirit Academy ban
38%50%
Betclic · 9 mapsedge Spirit Academy +12%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
38%50%
Betclic · 4 mapsedge Spirit Academy +12%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
38%50%
Betclic · 4 mapsedge Spirit Academy +12%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
MirageSpirit Academy pick
25%50%
Betclic · 4 mapsedge Spirit Academy +25%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
29%50%
Betclic · 3 mapsedge Spirit Academy +21%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
DefaultBetclic pick
67%50%
Betclic · 2 mapsedge Betclic +17%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Inferno
2. BanSpirit Academy remove Anubis
3. PickBetclic take Default
4. PickSpirit Academy take Mirage
5. BanSpirit Academy remove Nuke
6. BanBetclic remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Betclic 23%Spirit Academy 77%
The model gave 77% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Betclic.
Nukeprediction correct17:19
Betclic 41%Spirit Academy 59%
The model gave 59% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Overpassprediction missed6:13
Betclic 50%Spirit Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on Betclic — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 67%
Series resultSpirit Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3