WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBAKS pick
50%67%
CRUISER AURORA · 0 mapsedge BAKS +17%BAKS · 20 maps
Dust2CRUISER AURORA pick
40%41%
CRUISER AURORA · 1 mapnearly even -1%BAKS · 13 maps
NukeBAKS ban
50%38%
CRUISER AURORA · 0 mapsedge CRUISER AURORA +12%BAKS · 12 maps
InfernoBAKS ban
50%33%
CRUISER AURORA · 0 mapsedge CRUISER AURORA +17%BAKS · 8 maps
AncientCRUISER AURORA ban
40%70%
CRUISER AURORA · 1 mapedge BAKS +30%BAKS · 6 maps
MirageCRUISER AURORA ban
50%60%
CRUISER AURORA · 0 mapsedge BAKS +10%BAKS · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
CRUISER AURORA · 0 mapsedge BAKS +10%BAKS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCRUISER AURORA remove Ancient
2. BanBAKS remove Inferno
3. PickCRUISER AURORA take Dust2
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Nuke
6. BanCRUISER AURORA remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
CRUISER AURORA 43%BAKS 57%
The model gave 57% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
CRUISER AURORA 31%BAKS 69%
The model gave 69% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 68%
Series resultBAKS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2