WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
41%60%
BAKS · 13 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +19%CYBERSHOKE · 16 maps
CacheBAKS pick
68%63%
BAKS · 21 mapedge BAKS +5%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE ban
70%52%
BAKS · 6 mapsedge BAKS +18%CYBERSHOKE · 17 maps
NukeBAKS ban
38%50%
BAKS · 12 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +12%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
64%58%
BAKS · 7 mapsedge BAKS +6%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
33%50%
BAKS · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +17%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%33%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge BAKS +17%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Ancient
6. BanBAKS remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (64% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
BAKS 29%CYBERSHOKE 71%
The model gave 71% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
BAKS 59%CYBERSHOKE 41%
The model gave 59% on BAKS — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 62%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2