Stake Ranked Episode 3 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
64%43%
CYBERSHOKE · 10 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +21%SHISHKA · 3 maps
Dust2CYBERSHOKE ban
60%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 11 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%SHISHKA · 2 maps
MirageSHISHKA ban
53%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 11 mapsnearly even +3%SHISHKA · 0 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
33%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 5 mapsedge SHISHKA +17%SHISHKA · 0 maps
NukeSHISHKA pick
60%43%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE +17%SHISHKA · 3 maps
AnubisSHISHKA ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%SHISHKA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
2. BanSHISHKA remove Mirage
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. PickSHISHKA take Nuke
5. BanSHISHKA remove Anubis
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:6
CYBERSHOKE 31%SHISHKA 69%
The model gave 69% on SHISHKA — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
CYBERSHOKE 63%SHISHKA 37%
The model gave 63% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by SHISHKA.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
CYBERSHOKE 67%SHISHKA 33%
The model gave 67% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by SHISHKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 75%
Series resultSHISHKA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3