WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PRIVATE#66 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
K27#44 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%K27 · 22 maps
MirageK27 pick
67%67%
PRIVATE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%K27 · 20 maps
NukeK27 ban
50%48%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsnearly even +2%K27 · 21 map
AncientPRIVATE pick
67%48%
PRIVATE · 2 mapsedge PRIVATE +19%K27 · 17 maps
Dust2K27 ban
40%38%
PRIVATE · 1 mapnearly even +2%K27 · 9 maps
AnubisPRIVATE ban
40%67%
PRIVATE · 1 mapedge K27 +27%K27 · 8 maps
DefaultPRIVATE ban
50%60%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge K27 +10%K27 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRIVATE remove Anubis
2. BanK27 remove Dust2
3. PickPRIVATE take Ancient
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Nuke
6. BanPRIVATE remove Default
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
PRIVATE 71%K27 29%
The model gave 71% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
PRIVATE 49%K27 51%
The model gave 51% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
PRIVATE 50%K27 50%
The model gave 50% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 71%
Series resultK27 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3