WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
58%63%
Nemesis · 22 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%Nuclear TigeRES · 20 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
60%44%
Nemesis · 16 mapsedge Nemesis +16%Nuclear TigeRES · 21 map
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
61%78%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 14 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
62%46%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +16%Nuclear TigeRES · 9 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%52%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even -2%Nuclear TigeRES · 17 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
50%22%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +28%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
69%56%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderCache (69% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Nemesis 68%Nuclear TigeRES 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Nemesis 28%Nuclear TigeRES 72%
The model gave 72% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Nemesis 65%Nuclear TigeRES 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 58%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3