ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9z#17 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
53%55%
FURIA · 13 mapsnearly even -2%9z · 7 maps
NukeFURIA pick
62%46%
FURIA · 9 mapsedge FURIA +16%9z · 9 maps
Dust29z pick
50%55%
FURIA · 10 mapsedge 9z +5%9z · 7 maps
CacheFURIA ban
47%50%
FURIA · 11 mapsnearly even -3%9z · 4 maps
Ancient9z ban
46%43%
FURIA · 9 mapsnearly even +3%9z · 3 maps
Inferno9z ban
63%44%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge FURIA +19%9z · 5 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge 9z +21%9z · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. Ban9z remove Inferno
3. PickFURIA take Nuke
4. Pick9z take Dust2
5. Ban9z remove Ancient
6. BanFURIA remove Cache
DeciderMirage (53% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
FURIA 62%9z 38%
The model gave 62% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
FURIA 70%9z 30%
The model gave 70% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 85%
Series resultFURIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2