ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
59%45%
1win · 30 mapsedge 1win +14%Aurora · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%61%
1win · 15 mapsnearly even +2%Aurora · 14 maps
AnubisAurora pick
39%62%
1win · 14 mapsedge Aurora +23%Aurora · 9 maps
AncientAurora ban
58%40%
1win · 20 mapsedge 1win +18%Aurora · 1 map
CacheAurora ban
56%50%
1win · 12 mapsedge 1win +6%Aurora · 6 maps
Inferno1win ban
63%55%
1win · 4 mapsedge 1win +8%Aurora · 7 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%75%
1win · 0 mapsedge Aurora +25%Aurora · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickAurora take Anubis
5. BanAurora remove Cache
6. Ban1win remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (63% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
1win 66%Aurora 34%
The model gave 66% on 1win — the map was taken by Aurora.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
1win 26%Aurora 74%
The model gave 74% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 76%
Series resultAurora 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2