ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISION#20 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
75%40%
Vitality · 12 mapsedge Vitality +35%PARIVISION · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%38%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge Vitality +12%PARIVISION · 9 maps
MiragePARIVISION pick
62%50%
Vitality · 9 mapsedge Vitality +12%PARIVISION · 4 maps
AnubisVitality ban
46%43%
Vitality · 9 mapsnearly even +3%PARIVISION · 3 maps
CachePARIVISION ban
70%38%
Vitality · 6 mapsedge Vitality +32%PARIVISION · 4 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%69%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge PARIVISION +19%PARIVISION · 9 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%50%
Vitality · 8 mapsnearly even +0%PARIVISION · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. PickPARIVISION take Mirage
5. BanPARIVISION remove Cache
6. BanVitality remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
Vitality 59%PARIVISION 41%
The model gave 59% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Vitality 84%PARIVISION 16%
The model gave 84% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 86%
Series resultVitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2