ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ pick
53%82%
FURIA · 13 mapsedge MOUZ +29%MOUZ · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%60%
FURIA · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +10%MOUZ · 11 maps
NukeFURIA pick
64%62%
FURIA · 10 mapsnearly even +2%MOUZ · 9 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
46%38%
FURIA · 9 mapsedge FURIA +8%MOUZ · 9 maps
CacheMOUZ ban
47%50%
FURIA · 11 mapsnearly even -3%MOUZ · 6 maps
InfernoFURIA ban
67%78%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +11%MOUZ · 5 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +21%MOUZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
3. PickFURIA take Nuke
4. PickMOUZ take Mirage
5. BanMOUZ remove Cache
6. BanFURIA remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
FURIA 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on FURIA — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
FURIA 34%MOUZ 66%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 51%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2