5EPlay Professional Challenge Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
45%65%
Just Swing · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +20%Rare Atom · 16 maps
AncientJust Swing ban
42%50%
Just Swing · 8 mapsedge Rare Atom +8%Rare Atom · 8 maps
CacheJust Swing pick
73%69%
Just Swing · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Rare Atom · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%54%
Just Swing · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 9 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 6 maps
AnubisRare Atom ban
50%57%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Rare Atom · 3 maps
DefaultRare Atom ban
60%33%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +27%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanRare Atom remove Default
3. PickJust Swing take Cache
4. PickRare Atom take Dust2
5. BanRare Atom remove Anubis
6. BanJust Swing remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (44% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Just Swing 28%Rare Atom 72%
The model gave 72% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Cacheprediction missed3:13
Just Swing 57%Rare Atom 43%
The model gave 57% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 69%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2