IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FUT#8 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2G2 ban
42%50%
G2 · 8 mapsedge FUT +8%FUT · 2 maps
AncientG2 pick
67%57%
G2 · 5 mapsedge G2 +10%FUT · 3 maps
MirageFUT ban
50%33%
G2 · 6 mapsedge G2 +17%FUT · 2 maps
OverpassFUT pick
67%63%
G2 · 2 mapsnearly even +4%FUT · 4 maps
InfernoFUT ban
43%50%
G2 · 3 mapsedge FUT +7%FUT · 0 maps
NukeG2 ban
50%29%
G2 · 0 mapsedge G2 +21%FUT · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanFUT remove Inferno
3. PickG2 take Ancient
4. PickFUT take Overpass
5. BanFUT remove Mirage
6. BanG2 remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
G2 47%FUT 53%
The model gave 53% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Overpassprediction correct13:7
G2 58%FUT 42%
The model gave 58% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
G2 60%FUT 40%
The model gave 60% on G2 — the map was taken by FUT.
Model check result
Model favoriteFUT · 52%
Series resultFUT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3