IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Monte#23 in the world · win 13:11series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 13:11
Legacy#7 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
44%70%
Monte · 5 mapsedge Legacy +26%Legacy · 6 maps
AncientLegacy ban
43%40%
Monte · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Legacy · 6 maps
MirageMonte ban
57%80%
Monte · 3 mapsedge Legacy +23%Legacy · 6 maps
NukeLegacy ban
43%50%
Monte · 3 mapsedge Legacy +7%Legacy · 6 maps
InfernoMonte ban
50%63%
Monte · 0 mapsedge Legacy +13%Legacy · 4 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
60%60%
Monte · 1 mapnearly even +0%Legacy · 1 map
OverpassMonte ban
40%60%
Monte · 1 mapedge Legacy +20%Legacy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMonte remove Overpass
2. BanLegacy remove Anubis
3. BanMonte remove Inferno
4. BanLegacy remove Ancient
5. BanMonte remove Mirage
6. BanLegacy remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (44% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Monte 53%Legacy 47%
The model gave 53% on Monte — the map was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 74%
Series resultMonte 13:11
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1