IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 6:13
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTYLOO ban
57%40%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +17%TYLOO · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%73%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +23%TYLOO · 11 maps
MirageAstralis ban
57%71%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +14%TYLOO · 10 maps
NukeAstralis ban
43%55%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +12%TYLOO · 7 maps
OverpassTYLOO ban
33%55%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +22%TYLOO · 7 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
43%50%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +7%TYLOO · 0 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
50%67%
Astralis · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +17%TYLOO · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. BanAstralis remove Mirage
4. BanTYLOO remove Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Nuke
6. BanTYLOO remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (50% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Astralis 38%TYLOO 62%
The model gave 62% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 68%
Series resultTYLOO 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1