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ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fever Squadwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFever Squad ban
73%50%
NAVI Junior · 18 mapsedge NAVI Junior +23%Fever Squad · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%50%
NAVI Junior · 15 mapsedge Fever Squad +8%Fever Squad · 0 maps
AncientFever Squad pick
31%50%
NAVI Junior · 9 mapsedge Fever Squad +19%Fever Squad · 0 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior pick
54%50%
NAVI Junior · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Fever Squad · 0 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
38%50%
NAVI Junior · 9 mapsedge Fever Squad +12%Fever Squad · 0 maps
DefaultFever Squad ban
57%50%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%Fever Squad · 0 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
33%50%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge Fever Squad +17%Fever Squad · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
2. BanFever Squad remove Mirage
3. PickNAVI Junior take Anubis
4. PickFever Squad take Ancient
5. BanFever Squad remove Default
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
NAVI Junior 45%Fever Squad 55%
The model gave 55% on Fever Squad — the map was taken by Fever Squad.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
NAVI Junior 51%Fever Squad 49%
The model gave 51% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
NAVI Junior 31%Fever Squad 69%
The model gave 69% on Fever Squad — the map was taken by Fever Squad.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 68%
Series resultFever Squad 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3